Project Scheduling Using State-based Probabilistic Decision Networks


This paper presents probabilistic CPM scheduling using an add-on program to the STROBOSCOPE simulation system that allows dependence and correlation between activity durations as well as control over precedence and the selection of paths. Activity durations and sequencing can be defined in terms of the dynamic information that becomes available as a project evolves and includes the actual start date and duration of activities already started. An example highway project illustrates the modeling power of this approach.


Photios G. Ioannou

Civil & Environmental Engineering Department

University of Michigan

Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109-2125, U.S.A.


Julio C. Martinez

Charles E. Via, Jr. Department of Civil Engineering

Virginia Tech

Blacksburg, Virginia 24061-0105, U.S.A.



STROBOSCOPE, highway, construction, simulation, modeling , animation, activity scanning, CPM, PERT, probability, scheduling.


Ioannou, P.G., Martinez, J.C., "Project Scheduling Using State-based Probabilistic Decision Networks" Proceedings, Winter Simulation Conference 98, 1287-1295, Washington, D.C., December 13-16, 1998.