State-Based Probabilistic Scheduling Using Stroboscope's CPM Add-On


Critical path scheduling is a well-developed tool for construction planning at the project level. A substantial amount of research has focused on adding probabilistic capabilities to the technique. Simulation-based methods are almost universally accepted as the most effective because of their modeling versatility and power. Some scheduling models based on simulation recognize correlation between activity durations and allow the probabilistic selection of paths within a network. Very few techniques, however, allow activity duration and sequencing to be defined in terms of the dynamic information that becomes available as a project evolves.


Julio C. Martinez

Charles E. Via, Jr. Department of Civil Engineering

Virginia Tech

Blacksburg, Virginia 24061-0105, U.S.A.


Photios G. Ioannou

Civil & Environmental Engineering Department

University of Michigan

Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109-2125, U.S.A.



STROBOSCOPE, construction, simulation, modeling , animation, activity scanning, CPM, PERT, probability, scheduling.


Martinez, J.C., Ioannou P.G., "State-Based Probabilistic Scheduling Using Stroboscope's CPM Add-On," Proceedings, Construction Congress V, 438-445, Minneapolis, MN, Oct 4-8, 1997