Project Scheduling Using 
State-based Probabilistic Decision Network
s


ABSTRACT 
This paper presents probabilistic CPM scheduling using an add-on program to the STROBOSCOPE simulation system that allows dependence and correlation between activity durations as well as control over precedence and the selection of paths. Activity durations and sequencing can be defined in terms of the dynamic information that becomes available as a project evolves and includes the actual start date and duration of activities already started. An example highway project illustrates the modeling power of this approach.

AUTHORS 
Photios G. Ioannou
Civil & Environmental Engineering Department
University of Michigan
Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109-2125, U.S.A.
e-mail: photios@umich.edu

Julio C. Martinez
Charles E. Via, Jr. Department of Civil Engineering
Virginia Tech
Blacksburg, Virginia 24061-0105, U.S.A.
e-mail: julio@vt.edu


KEYWORDS 

STROBOSCOPE, highway, construction, simulation, modeling , animation,  activity scanning, CPM, PERT, probability, scheduling.


AVAILABILITY 
Ioannou, P.G., Martinez, J.C., "Project Scheduling Using State-based Probabilistic Decision Networks" Proceedings, Winter Simulation Conference 98, 1287-1295, Washington, D.C., December 13-16, 1998.