ProbSched—Probabilistic Scheduling

ProbSched Description

ProbSched is a graphical probabilistic schedule analysis system. It allows the definition of activity-based project models using precedence networks (similar to CPM/PERT) where activity duration and/or cost are uncertain and must be defined probabilistically. Precedence network models are defined using a Graphical User Interface with drag-and-drop graphics. The stochastic simulation analysis of project schedule and cost performance is performed by Stroboscope.

Shown below is an example project inside the ProbSched Graphical User Interface. The ProbSched stencil with predefined drag-and-drop graphics appears on the left.

ProbSched GUI
ProbSched Visio Output
ProbSched is implemented in Microsoft Visio and is a shell for Stroboscope's simulation engine. It is entirely self-contained and learning and using ProbSched does not require any knowledge or use of Stroboscope directly.

Probabilistic scheduling networks in ProbSched are built using custom drag-and-drop graphics that do not require any programming. The simulation of ProbSched models produces automatically (a) textual and graphical output to indicate the criticality of each activity, (b) statistics about the early and late times and floats of all activities, and (c) statistics about the overall project duration. It is also possible, if so desired, to augment ProbSched models with standardized easy-to-use Stroboscope statements that provide additional project control and statistics.

ProbSched is installed with Stroboscope and can be launched by selecting ProbSched from the Stroboscope program group.

Learning ProbSched

An introduction to ProbSched is included in a paper on probabilistic scheduling that explains all ProbSched concepts and modeling elements. This paper also describes an example ProbSched model for a highway reconstruction project.